Mexico’s economy grew 3.7% year over year in September, according to preliminary seasonally adjusted data published on Tuesday by the national statistics agency INEGI.
The annual growth rate is the highest of any month so far this year, exceeding July’s 3.3% expansion and a 3.2% estimated increase in August.
INEGI also published preliminary data on Tuesday that showed that Mexico’s economy grew 0.1% on a month-over-month basis in September. That growth rate is significantly lower than the 0.5% month-over-month expansion in August, according to INEGI’s latest estimate.
Both the annual and month-over-month growth rates for September are subject to revision. Final data for the month will be published in late November.
Services sector growth hits 4%
INEGI’s preliminary data shows that Mexico’s tertiary, or services, sector recorded 4% year-over-year growth in September, up from a 3.7% expansion in August.
The secondary sector — which includes manufacturing, construction, mining and electricity generation — expanded 3.6%, according to the preliminary data, on par with the growth rate in August.
INEGI didn’t publish preliminary data for the primary sector.
Analyst: Annual growth in Q3 could exceed 3%
In an X post on Tuesday, Banco Base’s director of economic analysis, Gabriela Siller, wrote that GDP data for the third quarter of 2026 “could show” quarter-over-quarter growth of 0.99% and annual growth of 3.04%.
En México, el PIB del tercer trimestre podría mostrar un crecimiento trimestral de 0.99% y anual de 3.04%, de acuerdo a las cifras del indicador oportuno de la actividad económica (IOAE).
Esto se debe a que el IOAE de agosto fue revisado al alza, de un crecimiento mensual de 0.14% a 0.47%. Por su parte, en septiembre el IOAE mostró un crecimiento mensual de 0.09%.
— Gabriela Siller Pagaza (@GabySillerP) October 20, 2026
An annual growth rate of 3.04% would represent a significant improvement from the expansions recorded in the first and second quarters of the year. Mexico’s economy grew 0.4% in annual terms in Q1 and 1.9% in Q2.
On a quarter-over-quarter basis, Mexico’s economy contracted 0.6% in Q1 and grew 1.4% in Q2.
Annual GDP growth in 2025 was just 0.8%.
In a separate X post on Tuesday, Siller wrote that there are “three factors that support greater economic growth in Mexico this year.”
Those factors, she wrote, are “the downward revision of GDP in the second quarter of 2025” as well as “greater public spending on physical infrastructure, which has a multiplier effect on the economy,” and “the high growth of computer equipment exports, reaching 209.75% annually in the cumulative total through August.”
Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund revised its 2026 growth forecast for Mexico’s economy to 1.5% from a previous prediction of 1.2%.
