Mexico’s elderly population is increasing at such an accelerated rate that the National Population Council (Conapo) estimates that there will be more senior citizens than children by 2034.
The aging population and the low average schooling rate suggest that the population’s make-up will pose challenges for Mexican society.
The National Population Program 2026-2030 report submitted by Conapo reveals that Mexico will reach a turning point in eight years, when there will be more people over 60 years of age than children under 12.
The picture painted by Conapo warns that in a relatively short time, Mexico will be a long-lived society, with low fertility rates and increasingly smaller and more diverse families.
The study indicates that fertility rates have fallen to 1.6 children per woman while life expectancy has increased by 15 years since 1970.
To illustrate the demographic changes, Conapo pointed out that the population growth rate in the 1970s was 3.21 children while currently it is well below the generational replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
Falling below the generational replacement threshold is not negative in itself, but it poses a concrete challenge. A population with fewer young people and more older adults requires adapting pension and healthcare systems to support those who reach old age.
Additionally, the reduction in mortality provides other challenges for Mexico’s health system: addressing chronic and cardiovascular diseases, infectious diseases, malnutrition and various marked inequalities between regions and social groups.
Other findings of the population report
- Mexico is the 11th most populous country in the world, with approximately 133 million inhabitants.
- Life expectancy at birth is 75.85 years: 79.24 for women and 72.74 for men. In 1970, that figure barely exceeded 60 years for the entire population.
- By 2050, it is estimated that nearly one-quarter of Mexico’s population will be over 60, almost double the current proportion (13.2%).
- A growing number of women — especially young women — are childless and have no desire to have children. Between 2018 and 2023, the percentage nearly doubled among women aged 20 to 24, rising from 23.7 to 43.2%, while the national average increased from 31.3 to 50.1%.
- Women who speak Indigenous languages have an average of 2.51 children, compared to 1.67 among those who do not speak them.
- Women who did not reach secondary school have 2.42 children, while the fertility rate of women with upper secondary or higher education is 1.44
Finally, despite the increasing number of Mexicans returning and more foreigners arriving, Mexico continues to experience population loss. Even so, Conapo concludes that Mexico will increasingly become a destination country and a country of permanent return migration.
With reports from El País, La Jornada and Excelsior
