Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 10 projections, matchups

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

WSH-NYG | NE-DET | KC-ATL | HOU-CLE | MIN-GB | JAX-TEN | MIA-IND
CAR-NO | BUF-NYJ | SEA-LV | LAR-ARI | SF-DAL | PIT-CIN | LAC-BAL

Projected Score: Giants 26, Commanders 21

Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Isaiah Likely

Fantasy Scoop: Daniels was limited to a season-low 14.6 fantasy points against the Rams on Sunday. A floor around 14 points is pretty good, but the bad news is that he’s been held in the 14-18 point range in four out of his six games and has cleared 21.0 points only once (Week 5 against these same Giants). Daniels has seven passing TDs and his rushing production has dipped in recent weeks. During his first three outings, he totaled a 21-203-2 rushing line. During his most recent three games, he’s totaled merely a 10-49-0 line.

Daniels’ career résumé suggests that he’ll bounce back as a rusher, but this is a situation to monitor in a good Week 10 matchup against a Giants defense that allowed him a 9-103-2 rushing line and 32.3 fantasy points earlier this season. New York has surrendered the sixth-most QB fantasy points on the season.

Projected Game Total: 46.5 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Giants 66% (9th highest)

Projected Score: Patriots 28, Lions 27

Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, DeMario Douglas, Sam LaPorta

Fantasy Scoop: Douglas was an afterthought in the New England offense last season, posting a 31-447-3 fantasy line on 44 targets across 17 regular-season games. A bigger part of the offense here in 2026, Douglas is already at 31-434-4 on 46 targets through nine games. “Pop” is fresh off a career-high 102 receiving yards on a season-high nine targets against Green Bay on Sunday. He has now produced 15-plus fantasy points in four of his last five games, having averaged 5.8 targets per game and scoring four TDs during the span.

With A.J. Brown in doubt for Week 10, Douglas is positioned for a big role against a Detroit defense that has, even after a good game against Miami last week, still allowed the third-most catches and seventh-most fantasy points to WRs. Douglas will remain in the WR2/3 mix as long as Brown remains sidelined, but is best sent back to benches once Maye’s top target returns.

Shadow Alert: Williams vs. Christian Gonzalez

Projected Game Total: 54.9 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Patriots 53% (12th highest)

Projected Score: Chiefs 28, Falcons 17

Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce

Fantasy Scoop: Rice produced 9.9 fantasy points back in Week 1 and matched that season low against the Jets on Sunday. Those two duds bookended three games with 12-plus fantasy points — his only other full games this season. Rice has delivered either one touchdown or 83-plus yards in four out of his five games, and while his usage is down from prior years, he has still handled six-plus targets in four consecutive full games (7.5 per game).

Rice isn’t doing enough to warrant WR1 consideration. Still, even with Josh Downs added to the mix, he should remain locked into lineups this week against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the sixth-most catches and 13th-most fantasy points to receivers. Ja’Marr Chase (31.5) and Tee Higgins (20.2) both produced 20-plus points against the Falcons in Week 9.

Projected Game Total: 44.8 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 84% (4th highest)

Projected Score: Texans 25, Browns 21

Lineup locks: Nico Collins, Denzel Boston

Fantasy Scoop: C.J. Stroud put up 384 passing yards, five passing TDs and 35.4 fantasy points against the Chargers on Sunday. It was his best performance since Week 9 of his rookie season in 2023 (470 yards, 5 TDs, 41.8 points). Stroud has now delivered 20-plus fantasy points in four out of his past five games and has produced at least 16.5 points in seven of his eight games this season. The fourth-year QB hasn’t done much with his legs (20-100-1), but his 16 passing TDs put him well on his way to a career high — his prior best was 23 TDs in 2023 — and he has thrown only two INTs.

Stroud is playing well enough that he’s on the weekly streaming radar, though he has a tough assignment this week against a Browns defense that has allowed only three QBs to reach 14 fantasy points this season, including just one over its past five outings.

Projected Game Total: 46.1 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 67% (8th highest)

Projected Score: Packers 23, Vikings 19

Lineup locks: Justin Jefferson, Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, T.J. Hockenson

Fantasy Scoop: With nine weeks in the books, Jordan Love easily leads the NFL in passing yards and sits third in passing TDs with 19. That’s a big reason he has the third-most QB fantasy points — and he has finished as QB7 or better in four of the past five weeks.

Despite the strong passing production, however, Love is not a recommended fantasy option in Week 10. The Minnesota defense has allowed the fewest completions, passing TDs (five) and QB fantasy points this season. Love did have some success against this defense in Week 1 (19.5 fantasy points), but in seven games since then, the Vikings have allowed a total of 47.7 QB fantasy points (6.8 per game). None cleared 12.9. Especially with Love offering very little with his legs (20-100-1), he’s best left on benches in his toughest remaining matchup.

Projected Game Total: 42.3 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 77% (5th highest)

Projected Score: Jaguars 32, Titans 15

Lineup locks: Trevor Lawrence, Bhayshul Tuten, Parker Washington, Carnell Tate, Jakobi Meyers

Fantasy Scoop: When we last saw the Titans (Week 8), Cam Ward enjoyed perhaps the best game of his young career. The 2025 No. 1 pick completed 26 of 40 passes for 304 yards (his first 300-yard game), with two TDs and no INTs. He added 41 yards on seven carries, which helped him post a career-high 26.3 fantasy points. Ward has now reached 20 fantasy points twice this season, although he has also fallen short of 12 points in five of his other six outings.

Ward, who totaled six all-purpose TDs over his first seven games, is a name to watch, but he can’t be trusted as a fantasy option until he delivers big numbers on a consistent basis. He can remain on waivers this week against a good Jaguars defense that has allowed only eight passing TDs and the sixth-fewest QB fantasy points. Only two QBs (Joe Burrow, Stroud) have reached 15 fantasy points against Jacksonville this season.

Projected Game Total: 47.1 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 96% (highest)

Projected Score: Colts 22, Dolphins 17

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Ollie Gordon II

Fantasy Scoop: Caleb Douglas’ production has been all over the map this season. Following Sunday’s 6-70-0 receiving line, the third-round rookie has reached 13 fantasy points in three games, with 70-plus yards in all three. On the other hand, he has fallen short of 8.5 fantasy points in his other two games, with fewer than 45 yards in both. During his five active weeks, Douglas has played on 79% of Miami’s offensive snaps and has a solid 22% target share, but the inconsistent usage (six-plus targets in three games, but exactly three in the other two) makes him tough to count on in fantasy.

Douglas has emerged as perhaps the No. 1 target in Miami, but in an offense that sits near the basement in passing attempts and passing TDs (six), he’s an unappealing flex — especially this week with Kyle McCord under center and going against a Colts defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest WR catches.

Projected Game Total: 39.1 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 63% (10th highest)

Projected Score: Saints 25, Panthers 25

Lineup locks: Chuba Hubbard, Chris Olave, Tetairoa McMillan

Fantasy Scoop: Darren Waller exploded for an 8-90-1 receiving line on 10 targets against the Broncos on Sunday. Waller has been about as boom/bust as they come this season, having hit 18.0 fantasy points twice, but falling short of 7.0 points in four of his other six outings. In true “streaming TE” form, Waller has averaged only 4.7 PPG in the five games he didn’t find the end zone.

Prior to Sunday, Waller had seen exactly two targets in three consecutive games and totaled 61 yards on two catches during that span. His playing time didn’t change much Sunday and the increased workload can (at least somewhat) be traced to Pat Surtain II shadowing McMillan. Waller does have another good matchup this week (New Orleans has allowed the seventh-most TE fantasy points), but he remains what he has been all season: a TD-dependent wild card.

Projected Game Total: 50.2 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 51% (lowest)

Projected Score: Bills 35, Jets 22

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook III, DJ Moore, Garrett Wilson

Fantasy Scoop: Breece Hall finally returned from injury on Sunday and the Jets’ backfield usage was as follows: Hall handled 15 carries and four targets (eight routes) on 27 snaps, while Allen soaked up eight carries and two targets (15 routes) on 36 snaps.

While it’s likely Hall was simply limited a bit in his first game back, Allen’s strong play suggests this will remain more of a committee than it was earlier this season. That makes both backs tough to trust in fantasy against a Bills run defense that has been a bit better as of late, but also one that has allowed 10 TDs and the ninth-most RB fantasy points this season. Hall, who has 16-plus touches in all four games he has played this season, is the preferred flex option of the two.

Shadow Alert: Wilson vs. Christian Benford

Projected Game Total: 57.4 (highest)
Win Probability: Bills 90% (3rd highest)

Projected Score: Seahawks 28, Raiders 20

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Brock Bowers

Fantasy Scoop: The Seahawks appear to have settled on a two-headed backfield committee featuring Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price. After playing only a limited role in his first game of the season (Week 8), Charbonnet jumped to a 56% snap rate. That allowed him to reach 77 yards on 16 carries, but only 9 yards on a pair of targets. Price, meanwhile, played on 38% of snaps, which translated to 24 yards on nine carries and 54 yards on four targets. Price’s 11.8 fantasy points were easily his most in five appearances this season, but the receiving uptick (four targets in two straight games) is pointing in the right direction.

The timeshare will likely limit the upside of both backs, but the duo is set up with a terrific Week 10 matchup against a Las Vegas defense that has allowed the most yards, the highest YPC (5.2) and the third-most fantasy points to RBs this season. Charbonnet should be in lineups as a solid RB2, while Price isn’t far behind as a viable flex option in a good matchup.

Projected Game Total: 47.6 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 72% (6th highest)

Projected Score: Rams 29, Cardinals 11

Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Trey McBride

Fantasy Scoop: Granted, it was against a tough Seattle defense, but Tyler Allgeier struggled to reach 46 yards on 17 carries Sunday and was held without a catch on two targets — despite playing on 96% of Arizona’s offensive snaps. It was disappointing, to be sure, after he totaled 191 yards and two scores against Dallas the week prior.

Allgeier’s Week 10 outlook will depend on the status of Bam Knight, who missed most of Week 8 and all of Week 9 because of a concussion. With Allgeier and Knight sharing backfield duties during Weeks 6-7, Allgeier saw 26 carries and five targets on 74 snaps, compared to Knight’s 22 carries and seven targets on 71 snaps. In that scenario, both backs would make for underwhelming flex options against a Rams defense that has allowed an NFL-low three TDs, 3.6 yards per carry (fourth lowest) and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs.

Allgeier will be a more palatable flex option if Knight remains out, though you should note that he managed just 48 yards on 19 touches when these teams met back in Week 6.

Projected Game Total: 39.6 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 96% (2nd highest)

Projected Score: 49ers 29, Cowboys 26

Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle

Fantasy Scoop: Williams has been outstanding this season, but expectations will need to be lowered a bit this week against a 49ers defense that has been elite against the run. San Francisco is allowing 3.5 yards per carry (third lowest) and has surrendered a league-low two RB rushing scores this season. Williams has done most of his damage on the ground, ranking in the top 10 among backs in both carries and rushing yards, as well as second in rush TDs (nine) thanks to a league-high 18 carries inside the 5.

Williams actually paces the entire NFL in expected TDs (11.4). He also sits just inside the top 15 backs in both targets and receptions, which is notable, as the 49ers have surrendered the most RB catches this season. Although Williams’ efficiency may not be as good as usual, his strong play and heavy usage — especially near the goal line — is enough to keep him in the fringe-RB1 mix.

Projected Game Total: 55.5 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 60% (11th highest)

Projected Score: Bengals 24, Steelers 23

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Jaylen Warren, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

Fantasy Scoop: DK Metcalf has been busy this season, playing on a career-high 94% of offensive snaps and handling a 23.9% target share (his highest since 2022). But despite the consistent playing time, he hasn’t been a reliable fantasy option. He has reached 16.5 fantasy points twice but has also been in the single digits five times. That includes two consecutive outings that featured receiving lines of 2-56-0 and 1-4-0 (only six targets in both).

Metcalf, who is scoring a career-low 9.7 fantasy PPG, is doing enough to hang in the WR3 mix, but he’ll have his hands full this week against probable DJ Turner shadow coverage. Metcalf scored his lone touchdown of the season when these teams met back in Week 3, but with Turner aligning against him on his perimeter routes, he totaled just 31 yards on five targets in the game. Turner also shadowed Metcalf in both 2025 meetings between these teams, during which Metcalf was held to single-digit fantasy points (8.0, 9.9).

Projected Game Total: 46.7 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 53% (13th highest)

Projected Score: Ravens 22, Chargers 16