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MEXICO CITY — Mexico’s Economy Ministry announced Monday a comprehensive strategic framework for renewing the USMCA trade agreement, citing what officials described as “highly reliable indicators” that the deal will be renewed — chief among them that U.S. President Donald Trump said publicly he does not want it renewed.
Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard told reporters his ministry had spent 72 hours in intensive preparation following Trump’s statement last Wednesday. “When the President says he is not looking for something,” Ebrard explained, “our models indicate a 94 percent probability that he will announce he has obtained exactly that thing within the next 90 days.”
The forecast is grounded in what analysts now call the TACO Doctrine — internal shorthand derived from the Wall Street acronym meaning Trump Always Chickens Out. Mexican trade economists have adopted the framework as a formal predictive tool since late 2025. “They named their most reliable market indicator after our most reliable export,” said one senior official. “We choose to take that as a win.”
The pattern is well-documented. Trump threatened 50 percent tariffs before granting a 90-day extension. He called USMCA “irrelevant” in January, then dispatched negotiators in March. “The stronger the denial,” said one senior ministry official “the more aggressively we prepare.”
Formal talks are currently proceeding across three scheduled rounds — a calendar set in motion, officials noted, the same week the president said there was no calendar.
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