We’re down to the final five weeks of the MLB regular season, and not only do we have exciting pennant races in both leagues, but we also have some tremendous award races.
Here are my early predictions for the key awards (including the Baseball Writers Association of America’s reliever of the year awards that debut this year). In the comments section, please let me know what you think I got right, what I got wrong and who you think I need to give more consideration to.
National League MVP
Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Chicago Cubs
Runner-up: Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, Los Angeles Dodgers
This is probably the closest race of all. Crow-Armstrong gets the edge mainly because of the knee injury to Ohtani, which has kept him off the mound since July 5. The offensive production for both players is similar, save for the running game where Crow-Armstrong has a significant edge (he’s already put together a 30/30 season and could reach 40/40). Crow-Armstrong plays an elite center field, however, so if Ohtani isn’t contributing on the mound, that gives Crow-Armstrong a leg up in this race. He’s an all-around star — he can beat you with his power, outfield range, base-running and arm.
If Ohtani had stayed healthy and continued to pitch as he did before the injury, I would’ve had him edging out Crow-Armstrong. Ohtani is expected back on the mound soon and should make this race really close by the end of the season. Both are deserving.
Who should win NL MVP?
Joe Crisalli
American League MVP
Winner: Yordan Alvarez, DH, Houston Astros
Runner-up: Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
After missing much of last season, Yordan Alvarez has had a monster season at the plate. (Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)
Alvarez has a legitimate chance to win the Triple Crown, which would be the first in MLB since Miguel Cabrera did it with the Detroit Tigers in 2012. Although designated hitters rarely win league MVP awards, capturing the Triple Crown would likely clinch it for Alvarez. I also think it may be time to redefine the Triple Crown around OPS, home runs and RBIs.
Caminero should finish as the runner-up, with Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals and Ben Rice of the New York Yankees also receiving votes.
National League Cy Young Award
Winner: Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Runners-up: Cristopher Sánchez, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies; Chris Sale, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Misiorowski has been the best pitcher in baseball all season and he has the most dominant fastball in the history of the game. He has a chance to set the MLB record for fewest hits allowed per nine innings for a starter (he’s currently allowing 4.78 hits per nine innings; the record is 5.07, set in 1916) and he leads all pitchers this year in ERA, strikeouts and WHIP.
Both Sánchez and Sale have had Cy Young-worthy seasons, but will not be able to catch the Miz, not this year at least.
American League Cy Young Award
Winner: Cam Schlittler, RHP, New York Yankees
Runner-up: Dylan Cease, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
When the season started, Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet were the favorites to win this award. Injuries scuttled that prediction, as Skubal had in-season elbow surgery and was later traded to the Dodgers, while Crochet has spent most of his season on the injured list.
This opened the door for Schlittler to emerge as the most dominant pitcher in the AL. Through Tuesday, he’d yielded one run or fewer in 19 of his starts. He leads the AL in ERA and has been a reliable ace for a Yankees team that has needed one, with Max Fried, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time with injuries.
Cease hasn’t matched that level of domination on a start-by-start basis, but he’s overwhelmed hitters in many of his outings and leads the league in strikeouts. He should be the runner-up.
National League Relief Pitcher of the Year Award
Winner: Mason Miller, RHP, San Diego Padres
Runner-up: Jhoan Duran, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Mason Miller has been nearly unhittable all season. (David Frerker / Imagn Images)
Miller is the most dominant reliever in baseball. He leads NL relievers in ERA (0.96 ERA) while converting 32 of 33 save opportunities with 102 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings. His 101.5-mph fastball and wipeout slider are nearly unhittable and mixing in a changeup just isn’t fair.
Duran has been stellar as well, converting 28 of 30 save opportunities with 67 strikeouts and eight walks in 47 1/3 innings pitched to help keep the Phillies in the playoff hunt.
It should be noted that both of these closers were acquired at last year’s trade deadline.
American League Relief Pitcher of the Year Award
Winner: Louis Varland, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Runner-up: Bryan Baker, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Varland, another 2025 trade deadline acquisition, has developed into the most dominant closer in the AL. He’s converted 30 of 31 save opportunities with an impressive 83 strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings. He’s also been a rubber-arm for the Blue Jays, appearing in 61 games, the most appearances for any primary closer in all of baseball.
There are a bevy of AL relievers who have also had great years, like Baker, Cade Smith of the Cleveland Guardians, Aroldis Chapman of the Boston Red Sox and Jacob Latz of the Texas Rangers. Still, I don’t think any of them are catching Varland.
American League rookie position player of the year
Winner: Kevin McGonigle, SS, Detroit Tigers
Runner-up: Munetaka Murakami, 1B, Chicago White Sox
McGonigle was my preseason selection for AL Rookie of the Year and there is no doubt in my mind that he’ll be bringing home the trophy come November. He has slashed .278/.379/.423 while hitting for power and making an impact on the bases. McGonigle has been one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball this season, while also playing solid defense on the left side of the infield.
Because of his power, Murakami should finish in second, although I don’t believe players with service time in professional leagues in Japan and Korea should be eligible for this award since those leagues are on a similar level to MLB. That aside, Murakami has been a huge part of the White Sox turnaround this season, not only hitting for power but getting on base at a high clip and energizing the entire fan base.
American League rookie pitcher of the year
Winner: Parker Messick, LHP, Cleveland Guardians
Runner-up: Payton Tolle, LHP, Boston Red Sox
I have preached for decades that there should be separate awards for rookie position players and pitchers just like we have for the MVP and Cy Young Awards, but I have never been able to convince the people who make those decisions to change it.
Regardless, I think Messick should be recognized as the best rookie pitcher in the AL. He is the biggest competition for McGonigle for AL Rookie of the Year and might even finish top five in the AL Cy Young voting. Tolle has also been impressive all season, giving the Red Sox important innings as they’ve jumped back into the postseason picture.
National League rookie position player of the year
Winner: JJ Wetherholt, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
Runners-up: Sal Stewart, 1B, Cincinnati Reds; Carson Benge, RF, New York Mets
Sal Stewart and JJ Wetherholt have been the cream of a talented NL rookie crop this season. (Jeffrey Dean / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
The NL Rookie of the Year vote should be the closest of this award season behind only the NL MVP vote. Wetherholt was my preseason pick, and I am going to give him the edge here over both Stewart and Benge, but it’s close. Wetherholt has eclipsed double digits for home runs and stolen bases while reaching base at a solid clip at the top of the Cardinals’ batting order. He has the best range of any second baseman in the sport and arguably is the best overall defender at the position, as well.
Stewart has also had an incredible year, belting 28 homers and becoming the first MLB hitter to reach 100 RBIs this season. Where he falls short of Wetherholt is with the glove, as he’s a below-average defender at first base. That said, the vote really could go either way.
I also need to mention Benge because he has come on strong since a rough first six weeks of the season, hitting for power and running the bases well while showing off one of the best outfield arms in the game. I love this rookie class.
National League rookie pitcher of the year
Winner: Nolan McLean, RHP, New York Mets
Runner-up: Foster Griffin, LHP, Washington Nationals/Cleveland Guardians
McLean has been the jewel of the NL rookie pitcher class, posting a 3.21 ERA with 168 strikeouts in 148 2/3 innings of work. I don’t think he’s going to overcome the position player group to win Rookie of the Year, but I wanted to acknowledge him here and again push for two awards in the future.
Griffin was actually having a better season than McLean when he was traded at the deadline to the Guardians. The trade takes him out of winning the award in either league, which, again, is such an absurd rule and a disadvantage for rookies who can’t control when and if they’re traded.
American League Comeback Player of the Year
Winner: Yordan Alvarez, DH, Houston Astros
Runners-up: Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees; Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels
Alvarez, Cole and Trout have all had strong comeback seasons. Alvarez probably wins this award given the incredible numbers he’s amassed, but to see Cole look like his old self and for Trout to be getting on base while hitting for power and stealing bases again is good for the game.
National League Comeback Player of the Year
Winner: Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Runner-up: Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins
This is actually a really close race, as both Wheeler and Alcantara have had great comeback seasons. Lately, Wheeler has struggled a bit but has still had a more vintage Wheeler season than anyone could have reasonably expected given the surgery he had last fall to address thoracic outlet syndrome. After a so-so year coming off Tommy John surgery in 2025, Alcantara has put up a major-league-leading 21 quality starts this season for the Fish.
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Will Venable, Chicago White Sox
Runner-up: Chad Tracy, Boston Red Sox
Venable has taken the White Sox from the worst record in the AL with 102 losses to first place in the AL Central. Based on how Manager of the Year Awards are handed out, that should make him the heavy favorite. Tracy also has a legitimate shot after guiding the Red Sox back to a postseason position as an interim manager who took over the position in April. They both deserve the award.
I also want to mention Kevin Cash of the Tampa Bay Rays and Aaron Boone of the New York Yankees, who I consider to be the best overall managers in the league this year. Cash is elite at handling bullpen and lineup matchups, while Boone is special at in-game adjustments and dealing with the bright lights of the Big Apple. Unfortunately, that’s not how this award is given out, as it’s more about the manager whose team has exceeded expectations the most, or at least that’s how the voting has gone the last several years.
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Craig Stammen, San Diego Padres
Stammen was my preseason pick for Manager of the Year and he has not let me down, leading the Padres into a strong playoff position in his rookie season as skipper.
Special mention to Dave Roberts of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers, who have been the two best overall managers in the NL this season once again. Murphy is exceptional at motivating players and getting the most from them through his focus on fundamentals, game approach and strategy. Roberts is the best in the game at communication in all directions and preparing his team both as a whole and individually to reach their peak performances in October.
Murphy has a legitimate shot at winning this award for the third consecutive season, but Roberts isn’t likely to get strong consideration because voters look at the roster and the high payroll and expect him to have the Dodgers in first place every year. That being said, Roberts is a sure-fire future Hall of Fame manager and is one of the best of this generation.
