There were three big lessons learned from the College Football Playoff selection committee’s first ranking of the season — and one major question that loomed larger than anything else.
Indiana at No. 4?!
The Hoosiers are No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric but have the No. 31-ranked strength of schedule, and needed overtime in back-to-back games to beat unranked opponents Michigan and Minnesota. Coach Curt Cignetti also benched his starting quarterback, Josh Hoover, against Minnesota, as Hoover hasn’t been at full strength and the offense has struggled for about a month.
Indiana hasn’t exactly passed the eye test — but clearly the SEC has.
The three big lessons learned:
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The SEC has reasserted itself at the top of the sport, with five teams ranked in the top 10, led by No. 2 Georgia and No. 5 Alabama.
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And though the Hoosiers are leading the way for the Big Ten, No. 12 Ohio State has no margin for error. The Buckeyes would miss the playoff if it were today because they’d be bumped out to make room for the highest Group of 6 team — No. 25 Boise State.
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At No. 11, Notre Dame clearly has to beat Miami on Saturday. There’s no guarantee for the Irish if they don’t finish in the top 12 on Selection Day.
The Big 12 is still in good shape to get two teams in, as No. 3 Utah and No. 9 BYU are in safe spots for now, with No. 15 Texas Tech in a decent position on the bubble.
The three undefeated teams left — No. 1 Miami, No. 3 Utah, and No. 8 UCLA — are the fewest entering November since 2014, the first year of the CFP. Even the traditional heavyweights are limping into the month with a flat tire, as Ohio State has multiple losses before November for the first time since 2011. Week 10 will provide much greater clarity, but we’re not there yet.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés. Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with “would be in” status below are in this week’s bracket based on the selection committee’s first top 25. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed “last team in” and “first team out.” These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled “still in the mix” haven’t been eliminated but have work to do. A team that is “out” will have to wait until next season.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s first ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 6
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Texas, Ole Miss
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels have the second-best chance in the SEC to reach the playoff (61.5%) behind Georgia (80.8%), but those teams play each other Saturday. Ole Miss is in a precarious position because of a lopsided loss to Florida, though the committee will at least talk about the fact that it happened on the road following an emotional home win against LSU and the Rebels’ former coach, Lane Kiffin. Some committee members will also question Ole Miss’ defense, which is No. 25 in total efficiency, but the group will generally reward the Rebels for wins against ranked opponents LSU and Missouri.
First team out: Tennessee. The No. 13 Vols have a double-digit win against No. 5 Alabama, but they lost to Texas and South Carolina. Tennessee has a 21.1% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Still in the mix: LSU, Missouri
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, UCLA
Last team in: UCLA. The Bruins’ strength of schedule is No. 77, which is one of the worst of the contenders in the first ranking. Their best wins are against Oregon and Wisconsin, and it helps that No. 23 Oregon was ranked Tuesday night. UCLA has a 51.8% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. ESPN’s FPI gives UCLA less than a 50% chance to win each of its last two games — at Michigan and vs. USC.
First team out: Ohio State. The wins at Indiana and at Iowa kept the Buckeyes in the top 12, but they’re in a dangerous position. The committee got its first look at Ohio State with freshman starting quarterback Luke Fahey in the lineup against USC, and he played a respectable game with no interceptions, but the offense couldn’t keep up with the Trojans. Ohio State was held without a touchdown on its first nine drives, but its defense might have been more concerning. The Buckeyes gave up a season-high 30 points, and 11 penalties and a fumble raised some eyebrows in the committee meeting room. But unlike other contenders, Ohio State has played the No. 18-ranked schedule, is No. 9 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and is ranked No. 6 in overall efficiency. The committee will consider that both losses came on the road, and that the Week 2 loss to Texas was by one point.
Still in the mix: USC, Oregon, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin. They’re listed here only because they can still reach the Big Ten title game, albeit with at least a 1.5% chance.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, Oregon, Purdue, Rutgers, Washington
Big 12
Would be in: Utah, BYU
Last team in: BYU. The Utes were ranked higher than both BYU and Notre Dame because some committee members valued their undefeated record and win against Houston. BYU has the win over Notre Dame, but a bad loss at UCF that looked even worse after the Knights lost to Baylor on Friday. Saturday’s game against BYU will settle who should be ranked higher, but BYU will be in trouble if it loses.
First team out: Texas Tech. The No. 15 Red Raiders have the second-best chance (45.2%) to reach the Big 12 title game after Saturday’s important win against Arizona — just a bit ahead of BYU (39.3%). That’s because Texas Tech has at least a 60% chance to win each of its remaining games, but back-to-back trips to Oklahoma State and Baylor won’t be easy. The Red Raiders rank No. 27 in overall efficiency against the No. 68 schedule to this point, and are No. 52 in offensive efficiency. The 13-point loss at Cincinnati was also damaging. Benching quarterback Will Hammond for Thomas Castellanos could be the spark they need to earn some style points down the stretch.
Still in the mix: Houston, Arizona, Oklahoma State. All three of these teams still have at least a 10% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics, and any Power 4 team that can win its conference can reach the CFP.
Out: Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The Hurricanes lead the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and they are No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 3 in overall efficiency. It would have been a surprise to see any team other than Miami at the top of the committee’s list. No team in the country has a better chance to reach the playoff (98.3%) because even with a loss at Notre Dame on Saturday, Miami is still the heavy favorite to earn a guaranteed bid as the ACC champion. Miami also currently has the best chance to win the national title (18.7%), just ahead of Notre Dame (13.3%). Saturday’s game in South Bend is Miami’s last road trip of the regular season.
First team out: Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons’ lone loss is to Miami; they’re No. 11 in strength of record and No. 7 in offensive efficiency; and their strength of schedule is No. 43, which is better than those of Miami, Notre Dame, BYU and Utah. So why isn’t Wake Forest in the top 12? The Deacs lost the one big game they’ve played by double digits and don’t have any wins against currently ranked opponents. The Sept. 26 road win at Louisville (5-3) is their best win and will be respected in the room, but it’s not as good as what most of the other contenders have.
Still in the mix: SMU. With road losses to Louisville and Syracuse, SMU isn’t a playoff team — unless it somehow wins the ACC. SMU still has the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game behind Miami and Wake Forest. SMU plays Wake Forest on Nov. 14.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. At No. 11, the Irish are in a precarious position. The Irish have a 79.2% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, but Saturday’s game against Miami will change that significantly — for better or worse. ESPN’s FPI currently gives Notre Dame a 61.3% chance to beat Miami at home, which the one-loss Irish desperately need to do to follow their own preseason mantra of “leave no doubt” in the committee meeting room. If Notre Dame loses, there’s no guarantee the Irish finish in the committee’s top 12, especially since the team’s strength of schedule currently ranks No. 55 and lacks a true statement win against a ranked opponent. Notre Dame’s best wins are against Wisconsin and North Carolina — two unranked opponents that both lost in Week 9.
Group of 6
Would be in: Boise State. Boise State, did that really happen? And was anyone on the East Coast awake to see it? The Broncos led 28-3 at halftime before giving up 36 straight points and falling behind 39-28 — then came back to win by one point. The Broncos still have the best chance of any Group of 6 contender to reach the playoff (61.9%), well above that of UTSA, which has the second-best chance (16.3%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. ESPN’s FPI gives Boise State at least a 75% chance to win each of its remaining games. Barring an upset, this seems like the Broncos’ playoff spot to lose.
Still in the mix: UTSA, New Mexico. UTSA’s only loss so far was at Texas, but the Roadrunners’ schedule ranks No. 88 in the country. New Mexico’s lone loss was to Oklahoma — which beat Texas — but the Lobos’ schedule ranks No. 114 in the country, which will be extremely difficult to overcome in the committee meeting room.
Bracket
Based on the College Football Playoff committee’s first ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 3 Utah (Big 12 champ)
No. 4 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
First-round games
Campus sites, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Kentucky
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Texas
No. 9 BYU at No. 8 UCLA
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Indiana
No. 11 Notre Dame/No. 6 Kentucky winner vs. No. 3 Utah
No. 10 Ole Miss/No. 7 Texas winner vs. No. 2 Georgia
No. 9 BYU/No. 8 UCLA winner vs. No. 1 Miami
