Chalmers defends house prices forecast
Achol Arok
Jim Chalmers has defended Treasury’s forecast on the impact of the government’s recent tax changes on housing, after the Commonwealth Bank predicted prices could fall by almost 10% across capital cities.
Treasury modelling said the changes would reduce house price growth by just 2% over the next couple of years.
Speaking on ABC’s 7.30, the treasurer said the new data did not fairly challenge the government’s forecast.
That Commonwealth Bank forecast that you reference in your question has house prices recovering next year, and so it’s a really important reminder that we need to compare ‘like with like’.
The assumptions in the budget are over the next couple of years, not the first couple of months since the budget … and the Commonwealth Bank says they expect house price growth as soon as next year.
Chalmers pointed to several factors unrelated to the recent tax changes that he said would contribute to the dip in prices.
There is softness in the housing market, prices have come off a bit, auction clearance rates have come off a bit, but that was beginning before the budget, and that’s because, as a number of experts have pointed out, one of the big influences is interest rates.
We have very substantial advantages in the face of some serious economic challenges. Productivity is one of them. Inflation is another. Extreme global volatility, turbocharged by a war on the other side of the world.
Key events
Shadow treasurer says tobacco plans would bring in extra billions and stop people buying from the ‘black market’
Tim Wilson, the shadow treasurer, said the tobacco proposal would bring in an extra $2bn a year as it would stop people “buying products from the black market”.
When asked if the Coalition initially planned to use the same 75% tobacco excise cut figure as One Nation, Wilson said:
We’ve been looking at this policy for a long time, but what we’ve been looking at is how do you break it down for the different parts of the market so that we can actually break the illegal tobacco trade? …
We’ve got a government, we’ve got a One Nation position which is focused solely on tax cuts. What we’re looking at is how do we stop the black market, both with enforcement and with reduction in the excise, so that we actually get the outcome Australians want.
Teen charged after ‘near-complete amputation’ of boy’s hand
A teenage boy will face court today after a “near-complete amputation” of a boy’s hand during an alleged assault in Sydney on Wednesday night.
NSW police were called to Redfern about 6pm last night and found a 17-year-old with a partially severed hand.
Police allege the 17-year-old was assaulted by another boy with a knife in a car park on Morehead Road.
NSW paramedics attended to the injured boy – it is not clear yet whether the hand was reattached.
Early Thursday morning after inquiries, police stopped a car travelling on Redfern Street in Redfern.
They arrested and charged a 15-year-old boy with wounding a person with intent to cause grievous bodily harm, and breach of bail.
He was refused bail to appear before a children’s court today.
Hume says Coalition’s plan isn’t a copy of One Nation and is ‘fully costed’ and ‘fully modelled’ to tackle organised crime
The deputy opposition leader, Jane Hume, said a new Coalition plan to tackle the illegal tobacco market isn’t a copy of the one touted by One Nation.
Hume spoke to Channel Nine’s Today show this morning, where she spoke about the plan to “crush the organised crime gangs that are making billions from illegal cigarettes and vapes”. The plan has a central tenet of slashing the tobacco excise by 80%, as well as a $200m law enforcement surge to shut illegal shops and stop illegal shipments.
Pauline Hanson recently said One Nation would cut the excise by 75% if it were elected to government.
Hume said the policies were “not at all alike”, saying the Coalition’s was “fully costed, fully modelled” and would “genuinely disrupt the organised crime that has taken over the market”. She told Today:
This is not a slogan. This is not a headline. This is a solution to a policy problem, a failure of this government. … We have no time to waste. We have a solution. We’ve done the work. Now let’s see if we can get it adopted …
This is not a perfect solution, but it is the only solution because the alternative, maintaining the same thing, means that criminals take over.
AI to be greatest change ‘since electricity’, Paul Keating says
Artificial intelligence is set to be the “greatest agency for change” since the introduction of electricity, former prime minister Paul Keating said.
AAP reports Keating made the comments at a sold-out Sydney writers’ festival event on Wednesday evening. He said Australia needed to boldly take on the challenges posed by AI.
“[Artificial intelligence] I think is going to be … certainly since the discovery of electricity, the greatest agency for change,” he said.
He also commended the federal Labor government’s recent changes to the capital gains tax to make housing more affordable as an example of the kind of change needed in the future.
And if we’ve lost 10 or 15% [of] house values, so what?
Good morning, Nick Visser here, welcome to Thursday. Let’s see what the day holds.
Australia pledges $3m additional aid
Australia will deploy a team of specialist drone operators to help the search and rescue effort in the deadly Nepal-Tibet floods.
Operators, including those from Fire and Rescue New South Wales and the Queensland fire department, will head to the disaster-struck region in the coming days.
It comes as the Albanese government has announced a further $3m in aid, bringing its total figure pledged to $11m.
The number of Australians unaccounted for remains at 38.
It comes as a RAAF plane arrived yesterday with humanitaian aid.
As of Thursday, Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Agency reported 1,204 confirmed deaths and 4,216 missing persons (including 583 foreigners).
$2m for Indigenous racism register
An online register of racism and discrimination against First Nations people is receiving up to $2m in Commonwealth funding to help inform anti-racism action, AAP reports.
The federal government has announced the funding before the final report by a parliamentary inquiry into racism, hate and violence directed at Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.
The minister for Indigenous Australians, Malarndirri McCarthy, said the parliamentary inquiry had heard confronting stories from Indigenous people about the hurt and harm they had experienced.
While we await the committee’s final report, we are not waiting to act.
This investment will strengthen the important work of Call It Out and support efforts to collate rigorous data.
Callitout.com.au is a culturally safe, trauma-informed website that collects data for analysis by the Jumbunna Institute to help raise awareness and drive systematic change.
Chalmers weighs in on One Nation WA byelection win
Achol Arok
Jim Chalmers says he has reflected on the key takeaways after One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen secured 57%of the vote after preferences at the Secret Harbour byelection.
Speaking on ABC’s 7.30, Chalmers said he acknowledged that concerns about inflation, the cost of living and real wages were on voters’ minds before the poll.
I have thought very deeply about the legitimate concerns and anxieties and frustrations that people have. About how the economy works, or doesn’t work for people. That’s the thing I’m most focused on. It’s the whole reason for our efforts to get inflation down, to make the economy more productive.
Chalmers added he believes the “faultline in our politics” is now changing.
It’s not necessarily between the centre left and the far right, it’s not necessarily the old distinctions. The distinction in our politics right now is a Labor government working to address the very real concerns that people have, versus the Liberals and Nationals and One Nation who just want to prey on that, and pick on that.
Chalmers defends house prices forecast
Achol Arok
Jim Chalmers has defended Treasury’s forecast on the impact of the government’s recent tax changes on housing, after the Commonwealth Bank predicted prices could fall by almost 10% across capital cities.
Treasury modelling said the changes would reduce house price growth by just 2% over the next couple of years.
Speaking on ABC’s 7.30, the treasurer said the new data did not fairly challenge the government’s forecast.
That Commonwealth Bank forecast that you reference in your question has house prices recovering next year, and so it’s a really important reminder that we need to compare ‘like with like’.
The assumptions in the budget are over the next couple of years, not the first couple of months since the budget … and the Commonwealth Bank says they expect house price growth as soon as next year.
Chalmers pointed to several factors unrelated to the recent tax changes that he said would contribute to the dip in prices.
There is softness in the housing market, prices have come off a bit, auction clearance rates have come off a bit, but that was beginning before the budget, and that’s because, as a number of experts have pointed out, one of the big influences is interest rates.
We have very substantial advantages in the face of some serious economic challenges. Productivity is one of them. Inflation is another. Extreme global volatility, turbocharged by a war on the other side of the world.
Welcome
Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the top overnight stories and then it will be Nick Visser with the main action.
Let’s begin.
