Quick Read
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Gavin Baker, founder of Atreides Management, argues that Anthropic will eventually surpass NVIDIA (NVDA) as the world’s most valuable company based on frontier AI model dominance.
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Anthropic’s Claude could eventually displace NVIDIA as the world’s most valuable company, depending on whether enterprise AI spending shifts from the compute layer to model intelligence over the next several years.
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The biggest IPO conversation right now centers on SpaceX’s reported June 12 listing. Gavin Baker, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Atreides Management, thinks investors are watching the wrong name.
On a recent episode of the Invest Like the Best YouTube channel, Baker argued that Anthropic, the private AI lab behind Claude, has a more dynamic trajectory than SpaceX and is the most credible long-term candidate to eventually surpass NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) as the world’s most valuable company. Baker’s thesis hinges on where AI economics ultimately concentrate.
That’s a striking claim. NVIDIA currently sits at a market capitalization of $5.2 trillion, with the stock up 55% over the past year. Baker’s case rests on where AI value ultimately accrues and how fast Anthropic is compounding.
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Baker’s Big Number on Anthropic
Baker’s editorial punchline was a single comparison. “The three highest profile SaaS companies founded in the last 10 years are Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR), Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW), and DataBricks. Anthropic just added their combined business in one month.”
The supporting numbers, per reporting and industry estimates Baker referenced, are eye-catching. Anthropic reportedly started the year at a little over $10 billion in annualized revenue and is now at a $45 billion annualized revenue run rate.
That acceleration is difficult to model even by AI-era standards. Baker positions Anthropic’s growth curve as the most aggressive enterprise software ramp ever recorded, with Claude capturing significant share of frontier model usage across coding, agentic workflows, and enterprise deployments.
The Valuation Setup Against SpaceX
Anthropic recently raised at a $900 billion valuation. Baker’s view was that market demand would support a raise closer to $1.8 trillion if the company wanted to price at that level.
That estimated demand-implied valuation lands in roughly the same zip code as SpaceX’s reported IPO target. Baker’s argument is that Anthropic’s underlying business is growing far faster than SpaceX’s, making the comparison less about size today and more about slope.
