In the NHL, contracts matter. For better or worse, every player is judged based on the money he makes and whether he’s worth the price. It may not matter as much as it used to, but it still matters.
This piece is about the players that are well worth the money — the best deals in the league. It’s when you ask yourself — “How is this guy making that much?” — but in a good way.
There are a number of team-friendly deals out there. According to each player’s projected value over the remainder of their deals, these are the league’s 10 best contracts.
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The goal here is to grade contracts empirically, with the same context being applied to each player across the league: How much value does each player bring to the table per year and over the life of the contract. The way that’s measured comes from comparing a player’s Net Rating and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract.
What players have already done holds no merit; this is about the future value of the deal, with age effects based on player comps taken into account while accounting for expected salary growth. Contract clauses and bonus structure are important, but not considered with this assessment. Players on LTIR were not considered.
1. Lane Hutson
Contract: $8.9M x eight years
Surplus Value: $110M
Positive Value Probability: 100 percent
The second Lane Hutson signed an extension after an electric rookie season, it looked immediately preposterous.
Then 2025-26 happened — a year where Hutson scored at a near point-per-game pace, improved defensively and was Montreal’s engine from the back end en route to a sixth-place finish for the Norris. Hutson’s early arrival as a franchise defenseman means that a deal that seemed preposterous before the ink dried has now transcended even that.
The context of Kirill Kaprizov’s landmark deal, Leo Carlsson’s offer sheet and the rapidly escalating salary landscape prove that. The price of superstar talent is veering closer and closer to $20 million under a $104 million cap. When the cap reaches $125-to-150 million, things will only accelerate further.
That’s the math that makes Hutson a player worth more than league max on his current deal. He’s not that now, but if he continues on his current trajectory (where his top comps are Cale Makar, Adam Fox and Quinn Hughes) and becomes a consistent threat to post a plus-20 Net Rating throughout his prime, Hutson will carry the kind of on-ice value that is worth 16-to-18 percent of the cap. That’s about $25 million against a $150 million salary cap.
Average it all out over eight years and you get the best deal in hockey, without question — and $100 million or so left on the table. The model might like Hutson a little too much, sure, but there’s no question just how great this deal is going to be for Montreal.
2. Jake Sanderson
Contract: $8.1M x six years
Surplus Value: $57M
Positive Value Probability: 100 percent
Lost in the shuffle of one of the strongest Norris races in recent memory was Jake Sanderson’s breakthrough as one of the best two-way defensemen in the world. In tough minutes, he showcased a massive impact at both ends of the ice and would’ve had a serious claim to be in the Norris discussion if not for 15 games missed to injury.
No matter, that leap brings his projected Net Rating up to plus-15, one of the top marks in the league among defensemen. At 24, he’s expected to stay strong at that level for the foreseeable future. Sanderson gets lost in the shuffle with other emerging franchise defenders, but his top comps being Miro Heiskanen, Alex Pietrangelo and Drew Doughty says it all. He’s going to be that guy for Ottawa.
That’s obviously a steal at $8.1 million for the next six years, which has become borderline top-pair money. Sanderson has risen well above that level.
3. Brandon Hagel
Contract: $6.5M x six years
Surplus Value: $44M
Positive Value Probability: 99 percent
There were some skeptics last year when Brandon Hagel finished second on this list, doubting Hagel’s ability to keep up the high level he flashed during the 2024-25 season. He did exactly that in 2025-26, scoring at an 85-point pace despite a lack of PP1 time while continuing to be an elite two-way driver at five-on-five.
Hagel has, amazingly, turned into one of the best wings in hockey with his top comp being Mark Stone at the same age. That’s worth a whole lot of dough these days, especially as he’s solidified himself at this level for three seasons. Considering Hagel is making a shade under Mason Marchment money, it’s safe to say that this deal will be a major steal over each of the next six seasons.
4. Jackson Blake
Contract: $5.1M x eight years
Surplus Value: $43M
Positive Value Probability: 94 percent
When a team has a young free agent, the best course of action is to sign ’em early and sign ’em long. The Hurricanes did exactly that with Logan Stankoven and Jackson Blake last summer, and it’s Blake’s deal that shines enough to land here.
Blake’s production jumped to 53 points before breaking out in a big way during the postseason with 20 points in 19 games en route to the Stanley Cup. Add his already stellar two-way impacts at five-on-five and the 23-year-old looks like he’ll be a legit top-six player during his entire prime.
It’s not difficult to see how Blake earning just $5.1 million for the next eight years to be that will be a huge steal. When middle-sixers such as Kiefer Sherwood and Bobby McMann are getting that for their declining years, a legit needle-mover such as Blake should add a ton of surplus value above that.
5. Moritz Seider
Contract: $8.6M x five years
Surplus Value: $41M
Positive Value Probability: 100 percent
Another new franchise defenseman on the scene courtesy of a seismic breakout, another deal in the neighbourhood of $8 million that’s aging beautifully.
When the Red Wings signed Mortiz Seider to this contract, his impacts in brutally tough minutes weren’t yet lining up with his reputation. Account for that and he was good, but not truly great. Not yet. All of that changed two seasons ago, and last year he took his game to new heights with a two-way season for the ages. While he didn’t ultimately end up with a plus-10 Offensive and Defensive Rating thanks to a tough final game, Seider came the closest any defenseman ever has.
His two-way ability is monstrous, and that’s what powers this valuation. Seider would be worth his deal if he were only a little bit above average offensively or defensively. That he’s this elite at both makes him worth nearly double his AAV.
6. Logan Thompson
Contract: $5.9M x five years
Surplus Value: $42M
Positive Value Probability: 94 percent
There should be no question which goalie has the best deal in hockey: it’s Logan Thompson. For roughly the price of Philipp Grubauer, the Capitals are getting the guy who leads all goalies in GSAx over the last two seasons by a full eight goals. Thompson led all goalies at plus-35.6 last season and finished sixth the year prior at plus-19.2.
The model currently rates Thompson, who is in the thick of his prime at age 29, as the league’s top goalie. Whether that’s actually true or not, there is still a massive chasm between where Thompson currently stands and what he’s being paid to be. And there’s a good chance he maintains that wide chasm for the duration of his five-year deal.
Goalies are notoriously fickle, but Thompson has been lights out for two years running. The odds of him outperforming this modest deal are very high.
7. Seth Jarvis
Contract: $7.4M x six years
Surplus Value: $40M
Positive Value Probability: 99 percent
What a summer for Eric Tulsky. First the Stanley Cup and now he gets two contracts on the best contracts list? Folks, it doesn’t get much better than that.
The trick with Seth Jarvis (and Blake) is that point totals still drive dollars; when Jarvis signed, he wasn’t a prolific scorer. He still isn’t. What he is, though, is a terrific play-driver, especially defensively. That’s a big part of what creates value: Everything Jarvis does that doesn’t show up on the scoresheet.
Jarvis has established himself as one of the best two-way wingers in the league for that exact reason. Being paid a paltry second-line rate for the next six years is a bargain.
8. Dustin Wolf
Contract: $7.5M x seven years
Surplus Value: $40M
Positive Value Probability: 92 percent
Putting a lengthy goalie deal on a “best contracts” list is risky business. Doing it for a guy who was closer to average last year and got outplayed by his backup is probably downright foolish.
It’s a testament to Dustin Wolf’s upside that he lands here anyway, with the length of his deal doing him a lot of favors. At 25, Wolf is still not close to “goalie prime,” which lands closer to 30; he should only get better after a sophomore slump. Next year he’s expected to jump into average starter territory, just outside the league’s top 10, and during the course of his deal, Wolf has a strong case to threaten the top five. Well, as strong as any goalie’s case can reasonably be — goalies are still very volatile after all.
But there are a select few who have the it factor where they can deliver year-over-year with consistency. Wolf’s current pedigree suggests he could enter that realm in his prime. There’s an underrated element often missed by looking at raw save percentage and GSAx as well, and that’s the ability to do that at volume. An average GSAx at 57 games is very different than at 30, and that’s accounted for here; being a bell-cow starter is part of Wolf’s high valuation.
The more important factor, though, is that while that on-ice growth continues, the cap will continue to grow to the point that $7.5 million will end up being the going rate for an average starter. If Wolf can be a consistent plus-10 GSAx threat, as the model expects, he’ll be a massive bargain at that price tag.
9. Rasmus Dahlin
Contract: $11M x six years
Surplus Value: $37M
Positive Value Probability: 95 percent
When Rasmus Dahlin signed for $11 million per year, he was already a high-end No. 1 defenseman. The value bet was that he would become something even more: A perennial Norris threat. That’s exactly what he’s blossomed into over the last two seasons, highlighted by last year’s third-place finish.
If Dahlin were to hit UFA this summer, it wouldn’t be difficult to imagine him commanding something close to Kaprizov’s current AAV. It’s in line with what Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes will no doubt ask for, and he’s risen into that company. That he’s signed for six more seasons at just $11 million is a huge discount for Buffalo.
10. Jack Hughes
Contract: $8.M x four years
Surplus Value: $34M
Positive Value Probability: 100 percent
Over the last three editions of this list, Jack Hughes has been a mainstay in the top three. Being on the fringes of the MVP tier as an annual 100-point pace threat while being paid just $8 million for a long time will have that effect. Yeah, he’s prone to missing time, and that should be factored in to an extent. But when he’s on, Hughes is one of the best centers in the world. His recent growth away from the puck has only added to that.
Hughes’ fall on this list mostly stems from major growth from others above him and the lack of term left on his deal. Four years is still a decent chunk of time, but it’s tough to deliver an abundance of surplus value compared to guys on longer deals. On a per-year basis, he’s still one of the best deals around.
Honorable Mentions: Nathan MacKinnon, Dylan Guenther, Sam Reinhart, Cole Caufield, Matt Boldy
