Reform UK gloomy about prospects in Makerfield, as one party source says Labour ahead by 2,500 votes
Josh Halliday is the Guardian’s North of England editor.
A Reform UK source just told me they currently expect to lose to Burnham by around 2,500 votes. An official spokesperson would not comment on numbers but said they believe it’s “fairly close” and that “no one’s running away with it.”
The spokesperson denied reports that Nigel Farage had left Makerfield, saying he had just been on the phone to him and he was still in the constituency.
Separately, a senior Labour source said it did not look like Restore Britain had been able to turnout its vote to the level that some had predicted.
They said Rupert Lowe’s hardline anti-immigration party could “possibly” achieve 7% of the vote but it was very unlikely to be higher than that.
Lowe, who is giving a series of media interviews, is believed to be claiming to have won 10% of the vote.
Key events
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Burnham says Labour now has ‘final chance to change’ and ‘must act upon it’
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Burnham says he will ‘focus on problem solving rather than point scoring’
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Burnham says he wants to put ‘Makerfield test’ at heart of British politics
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Burnham says he hopes his win will be ‘turning point’, and Makerfield will be ‘synonymous with change’
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Burnham elected MP for Makerfield with majority of more than 9,000
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Minister Mike Tapp criticises calls for Starmer to hand over to Burnham, saying that would trigger ‘credible calls’ for election
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Tories say Aberdeen South their first Westminter byelection gain in Scotland for almost 60 years
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Nandy dismisses claim Burnham only winning in Makerfield because Restore Britain split rightwing vote
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Rupert Lowe claims Restore Britain’s vote in Makerfield ‘much better’ than he expected
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SNP hold Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, with Labour pushed into 4th place – results in full
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Burnham ally Louise Haigh says Starmer should agreed to ‘orderly and managed transition’ of power
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Tories win Aberdeen South with majority of 6,050 – results in full
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SNP concedes Aberdeen South with Scottish Conservatives set to win
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Reform UK ‘very happy’ to come a strong second in Makerfield, says Sarah Pochin
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Reform UK gloomy about prospects in Makerfield, as one party source says Labour ahead by 2,500 votes
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Turnout in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry byelection 31.4% – down almost 30 points from general election
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Turnout in Makerfield 58.75% – six points up on general election
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Nandy says Labour ‘cautiously optimistic’ about Makerfield, and Burnham beat expectations pulling back Reform voters
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SNP reportedly worried they could lose Aberdeen South to Tories
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Reform UK’s Sarah Pochin defends video urging England team to ‘keep winning’ to stop domestic violence escalating
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Will Makerfield really be the most consequential byelection in British history?
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What polls have said about likely voting in Makerfield
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How Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry voted in 2024
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Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon says he’s confident of getting ‘big vote’ in Makerfield byelection
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Deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell says Labour has spoken to ‘record number of residents’ in ‘positive campaign’
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Burnham brings in top economists before possible leadership run
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Polls close in historic Makerfield byelection that could see Andy Burnham elected and pave way for end of Starmer
Burnham says Labour now has ‘final chance to change’ and ‘must act upon it’
Burnham said the vote against Labour at the local elections was “a loud cry for change”. He went on:
We have begun to answer that to that.
But I do say to my own party – this is a final chance to change.
This is what people said directly to me on the hundreds of doorsteps that I stood on.
We must hear it. We must act upon it, and we must get it right.
There will be no second chance, but it is a chance now, from this result tonight, to build a new politics based on unity and hope, turning away from the path that takes us to a divided, politics of the kind we’ve seen in the United States. We must now take this path and put this country back on the right path, and bring people back together and get things working properly again.
Burnham says he will ‘focus on problem solving rather than point scoring’
Burnham said he would be an MP for all people in the constituency. He said:
As your member of Parliament, I know people who traditionally vote for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and perhaps more recently in May for Reform UK have given me their support in this election.
I will always have respect to them … out of respect for them, I will always take a place first rather than a party first approach.
And I will focus on problem solving rather than point scoring.
And I will work hard after this by election to heal the divisions of this campaign and let it be really understood that I will be your MP however you voted.
Burnham says he wants to put ‘Makerfield test’ at heart of British politics
Burnham says he is proud people have seen the best of the constituency.
I am proud that this place has shone in the world’s spotlight these last five weeks, and the warm humour and hospitality of its people has been on show for all to see.
And he addresses the claim he is just using the constituency as a stepping stone.
It will never be a stepping stone to me, but instead will be my touch stone.
And he says he wants to put the “Makerfield test” at the heart of British politics, to places neglected by Westminster get their say.
By Makerfield test, he means that if a policy will not benefit Makerfield, and places like it, it should not happen.
Burnham says he hopes his win will be ‘turning point’, and Makerfield will be ‘synonymous with change’
Burnham is speaking now.
He says:
Everyone knows that politics isn’t working. Everyone can feel that the country isn’t where it should be.
Tonight could, just could, be the turning point.
From here on, I will give everything I have got to make it so, to ensure the name, Makerfield is forever synonymous with bringing about the change this country needs, bringing back something we’ve lost, hope. A hope for the future.
At the count Andy Burnham was about to make his victory speech, but he was interrupted by someone making some sort of complaint about him, relating to a nuclear power plant, I think.
Here is more detail on the figures.
Labour won 54% of the vote to Reform UK’s 35%, while Restore Britain secured 7%. Turnout was 58.75% – six points up on the general election, with 45,510 votes cast.
Burnham elected MP for Makerfield with majority of more than 9,000
Here are the key results.
Jake Austin, Liberal Democrats – 163
Andy Burnham, Labour – 24,927
Robert Kenyon, Reform UK – 15,696
Rebecca Shepherd, Restore Britain – 3,111
Sarah Wakefield, Green party – 308
Michael Winstanley, Conservative Party – 997
That means Burnham has won with a majority of 9,231.
The candidates are being summoned to the stage.
On the BBC Mike Tapp, the Home Office minister, says he has never met Andy Burnham. Backing up the point he made earlier (see 2.51am), he says anyone who gets elected should take power on the basis of a manifesto.
When it is put to him that he sounds angry with Burnham, Tapp rejects that. He says he is proud of the result, and pleased that the forces of division have been beaten.
From Ollie Cole from Times Radio
Sources in Makerfield think Reform could be looking at the possibility of 35% vote share…
Labour sources reckon they’re hovering around the 54% mark.
Huge if that bears out.
Minister Mike Tapp criticises calls for Starmer to hand over to Burnham, saying that would trigger ‘credible calls’ for election
The Makerfield result has not yet been declared, but already Labour figures are briefing against each other. Louise Haigh has been saying Keir Starmer should agreed to an “orderly and managed” handover of power to Andy Burnham. (See 2.05pm.) Mike Tapp, the Home Office minister, has also been giving interviews. He told the BBC that he disagreed with Haigh. He said he did not think a handover like that would be realistic, because Burnham “hasn’t laid out his political agenda”, he said. So there woud have to be a contest, he said. And that would mean “chaos”, he said.
Tapp also said that, if Burnham were to replace Starmer, there would be “credible calls for a general election”.
He said he wanted the government to be given time to deliver.
Tories say Aberdeen South their first Westminter byelection gain in Scotland for almost 60 years
Back to Scotland for a moment, and this is what Andrew Bowie, the shadow Scottish secretary, has said about his party’s decisive win in Aberdeen South. (See 1.58am.)
This is an extraordinary victory for Douglas Lumsden MP and the Conservatives. This is the first time that the Conservative party has gained a Westminster parliamentary byelection in Scotland since 1967.
We said this election was a referendum on the future of North Sea oil and gas, and Aberdeen has spoken loud and clear. Let’s Get Britain Drilling Now.
I look forward to Douglas joining the Conservative team in Westminster, where I know he will work tirelessly to hold Ed Miliband to account and stand up for the people of Aberdeen.
Nandy dismisses claim Burnham only winning in Makerfield because Restore Britain split rightwing vote
Hannah Al-Othman
Hannah Al-Othman is a Guardian North of England correspondent.
Lisa Nandy has said the Restore Britain vote “doesn’t seem to be quite at the level that the polls suggested”. (See 10.39pm.)
She said:
I think there’s a misunderstanding about the Restore vote here.
I’ve heard a lot of talk about how this is about Rupert Lowe and his profile, I’ve heard talk about how this is about them splitting the vote with Reform. Actually, they’ve always had a vote here, it’s not significant, it’s usually around six or seven percent of the vote, that if there’s an openly racist party on the ballot, will come out and vote for it.
So the idea that somehow if Andy wins here tonight, it will be because Restore and Reform have split the vote, frankly, I can say it’s for the birds. That group just stays at home if they don’t have an openly racist party to vote for.
And so, it really is about whether the most popular Labour politician in the country can pull off a victory in one of the toughest seats, where we just lost in large numbers seven weeks ago to Reform.
If Burnham does win, as expected, she said:
I hope that we can find a way to pull together and turn our gaze out to the country.
I think it would be a tragedy if we were to descend into infighting and turn the conversation to ourselves.
The reason that Andy has received so much warmth for the campaign that he’s run here is because it has been relentlessly positive, relentlessly hopeful.
Andy Burnham has just arrived at the Makerfield count, Josh Halliday reports. He got a huge round of applause from supporters.
