PARIS — After a tournament of enormous shocks, Russia’s Mirra Andreeva will take on Maja Chwalinska of Poland in the final at Roland Garros on Saturday, in one of the most unlikely championship matchups in recent Grand Slam history.
For the eighth-seeded Andreeva, it’s a chance to fulfill the talent everyone spotted when she was a junior and become the first Russian to win here since Maria Sharapova won the second of her two French Open titles in 2014.
For Chwalinska, in only her third Grand Slam main draw, it’s an opportunity to make history by becoming the first qualifier to win the title, and only the second qualifier to win a major, following in the footsteps of Emma Raducanu at the US Open in 2021.
Here’s how each woman could come out on top Saturday.
Why Andreeva will win
Experience. Andreeva has long been predicted as a future Grand Slam champion, and the way she has progressed throughout the past year has been ultraimpressive.
The 19-year-old reached the semifinals here two years ago and an outstanding clay-court season has led to this point. Her total of 35 wins this year is more than anyone on the WTA Tour and she has shown nerve and class throughout the two weeks, coping well with the heat in Week 1 and the windy, cooler conditions in Week 2.
In the past, her emotions have sometimes gotten the better of her, and that’s still a work in progress. But though it will be her first Grand Slam final, she has been around the business end of big events several times. In the semis, she showed great poise to beat Marta Kostyuk, ending the Ukrainian’s 17-match unbeaten streak on clay.
Andreeva’s serve has improved immensely in the past 12 months, her backhand down the line is immense and she won’t be fazed by the variety of Chwalinska, because that’s also how she likes to play.
Victory in Linz, a runner-up finish in Madrid, semifinalist in Stuttgart and quarterfinalist in Rome, she has been the form player of the clay season. And with Conchita Martinez in her corner, she has a champion who can help her deal emotionally with the big occasion. Andreeva should go on to win several slams. And this one can be the first.
Why Chwalinska will win
Quite simply, because she seems to be playing in a dream state.
When the tournament began, the left-hander just wanted to make her way into the top 100; just being in the final means she’s on the verge of the top 20, and if she wins, she’ll be in the top 15.
At 500-1 before arriving for her first round in qualifying, she was given no chance. But her variety, tenaciousness, athleticism and court craft has been a joy to watch for everyone other than her befuddled opponents, who have constantly been pulled out of position and dragged out of their comfort zone.
Her drop shots are brilliant, especially given that she plays them with two hands, and she reads the game incredibly well.
Having taken time away from the sport early in her career to deal with mental health, Chwalinska returned after a long break because she wanted to, not because someone else thought she should. As a result, she plays with a joy and a freedom that few others can match.
She seemed nerveless in her semifinal win and if she can handle the occasion of being in a first Grand Slam final, in only her third Grand Slam event, then she can produce one of the all-time great sporting surprises.
Who will win?
The head says Andreeva.
The Russian has the experience, she has been deep in big tournaments, and knows how to win titles. And she won’t mind the fact that Chwalinska throws in moon balls. She’ll find a way to get the job done.
But this year’s French Open has proved that nothing is predictable, and if she’s physically OK after the demands of nine matches, then everything we’ve seen suggests that Chwalinska could do it.
Her game is not based on power, or hitting lines, which means that nerves should not affect her as badly as they might a big-hitter who is feeling tight.
In the end, it depends who copes with the occasion and since Chwalinska genuinely has nothing to lose, she might just do it, especially if Andreeva stresses when the Chwalinska retrieves ball after ball she has no right to.
Though no one picked Chwalinska to go deep, she would be fully deserving of the title.
