THE MND SHEINBAUM INDEX™
Measuring Mexico’s president beyond the polls
MND Intelligence · Seventh edition
Welcome to the seventh edition of the MND Sheinbaum Index™, an eight-pillar index designed to give our readers balanced, data-driven insight into the current situation in Mexico across a range of areas under the leadership of President Claudia Sheinbaum.
In this edition of the index — which mainly uses data from the month of September — the headline number is 71.5, representing an increase of 3.6 points compared to the previous score. This is the highest MND Sheinbaum Index™ score to date and the first time it has exceeded 70.
WHAT DROVE THE INCREASE?
Higher economic growth and improvements in employment data were the main drivers of the increase in the MND Sheinbaum Index™ score in September.
Sheinbaum has said that the construction of public infrastructure projects has helped to spur stronger economic growth in recent months.
A slight increase in the president’s approval rating and a modest improvement in Mexico’s business confidence score also helped lift the MND Sheinbaum Index™ score in September.
A detailed summary of the latest index results appears below.
Before we look at the results and present the index trend during Sheinbaum’s administration, here is a short guide to the significance of an MND Sheinbaum Index™ score:
- 85–100: Exceptional — administration performing at a high level across nearly all indicators.
- 75–84: Excellent — administration performing well across most indicators.
- 60–75: Quite good, but room for improvement — meaningful strengths, some areas of concern.
- 50–60: Mixed — passing marks overall.
- Below 50: Broad underperformance — more indicators below benchmark than above.
MND Sheinbaum Index™ pillars for September 2026
Each pillar is given a stoplight color indicating a strong performance (green: a score above 9.4 out of 12.5), an average performance (yellow: 6.2-9.4) or a poor performance (red: below 6.2).
An upward-pointing arrow ⬆️ indicates that the pillar score improved compared to August. A downward-pointing arrow ⬇️ indicates a deterioration in the pillar score. A pause icon ⏸️ means there was no change in the pillar score compared to the previous month.
As you’ll see below, scores for four of the eight pillars increased in September compared to August. The score for three pillars declined, while the score for one pillar was unchanged.
🟢 ⬆️ ECONOMIC GROWTH (11.75 out of 12.5)
For the first time, the economic growth pillar is the top contributor to the overall MND Sheinbaum Index™ score.
Year-over-year economic growth was 3.7% in September, according to preliminary data from INEGI — a significant increase compared to August’s 2.5% reading.
(Annual economic growth in August was subsequently upgraded to 3.5% in revised final data.)
As a result of the higher economic growth in September, the pillar score increased to 11.75 from 8.75 in August.
🟢 ⬇️ INFLATION (11.38 out of 12.5)
After four consecutive months as the top contributor to the MND Sheinbaum Index™ score, the inflation pillar was relegated to second place in September.
Mexico’s annual headline inflation rate rose to 3.45% in September, up from 3.26% in August. The rate remains relatively close to the Bank of Mexico’s 3% target, but its upward trend is a concern for President Sheinbaum and the federal government, if not for the central bank itself, which cut its benchmark interest rate last week.
Due to the uptick in the headline rate, the inflation pillar score declined to 11.38 in September from 11.85 in August.
🟢 ⏸️ LABOR POVERTY (10.25 out of 12.5)
There is no change to the labor poverty pillar score in this edition of the MND Sheinbaum Index™ as the most recent data remains that published by the national statistics agency INEGI on Aug. 26.
Based on that data, the labor poverty pillar score is 10.25.
The labor poverty rate was 31.9% in the second quarter of 2026, an annual decline of 3.2 percentage points.
In the second quarter of 2026, real incomes rose 8% annually.
🟡 ⬇️ SECURITY (9.11 out of 12.5)
The pace of homicide reduction declined in September for a second consecutive month. The year-over-year decline in homicides was 30.6% in September, per data presented at Sheinbaum’s Oct. 13 press conference, down from a 32.1% reduction in August.
The security pillar score consequently declined to 9.11 from 9.37 in August.
A perfect score requires a 50% year-over-year decline in homicides.
🟡 ⬆️ APPROVAL RATING (8.81 out of 12.5)
Sheinbaum’s average approval rating was 70.5% in September, up two percentage points from August. Thus, the approval rating pillar score increased to 8.81 from 8.56 in August.
Per El Financiero’s September poll, Sheinbaum’s approval rating was 70%, an increase of two points compared to August.
A Sept. 28-Oct.1 poll conducted by QM Estudios de Opinión for the newspaper El Heraldo de México yielded a 71% approval rating for the president.
🟡 ⬆️ EMPLOYMENT (8.13 out of 12.5)
Mexico’s unemployment rate was 2.8% in September, below the 3% neutral benchmark, and down 0.2 percentage points from August.
The informality rate decreased 0.6 percentage points year over year in September, whereas the rate increased 0.2 percentage points in August. Despite the decline, Mexico’s informality rate in September remained very high at 54.3%.
The decrease in the unemployment rate and the informality rate meant that the scores for both components of this pillar increased in September.
The overall score of 8.13 is 1.5 percentage points higher than the score in August.
🟡 ⬇️ TOURISM (6.66 out of 12.5 — This pillar has a one-month lag)
International arrivals increased 1.3% year over year in August, the data period used for this index, down from 2.9% growth in July.
Thus, the tourism pillar score fell to 6.66 from 7.16 a month earlier.
🔴 ⬆️ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE (5.39 out of 12.5)
Mexico’s business confidence score, as measured by a monthly INEGI survey, was 48.4 in September, up 0.2 points from August. The score remains below the neutral benchmark of 50. In late 2024, when Sheinbaum was at the start of her six-year term, the business confidence score was around 52.
In September, the score for the foreign direct investment component of the pillar remained steady as the most recent data was once again that published by the Economy Ministry on Aug. 24.
According to that data, FDI in Mexico in the first six months of 2026 increased 2.1% annually, a much slower pace of growth compared with the 10.4% year-over-year gain in the first quarter of the year.
The slight improvement in the business confidence score led to an increase of 0.06 points in the overall pillar score. Nevertheless, the business confidence pillar remained in red light territory.
The MND Sheinbaum Index™ trend
In the graph below, you can see how the MND Sheinbaum Index™ score has changed over time.
We have now calculated a total of 12 index scores in a period spanning two years between September 2024 (the final month of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency) and September 2026.
The difference between the lowest score (54.5 in March 2025 — predating the publication of the first MND Sheinbaum Index™ article) and the highest (71.5 in September 2026) is 17 points. The index results clearly show that Mexico — under Sheinbaum’s leadership — was doing significantly better in September than in earlier stages of the current federal administration.
What to watch
The next MND Sheinbaum Index™ will focus on the month of October.
Here are three things to look out for in the October Index:
MND Intelligence
* MND acknowledges that President Sheinbaum does not directly control outcomes in all eight pillars. For example, global commodity prices and tariff decisions in Washington can affect Mexico’s inflation and growth rates. The Index measures what is happening in Mexico on Sheinbaum’s watch.
