Week 9 of the NFL season began with the Jacksonville Jaguars cruising to a 33-10 win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. Rain played a factor, but Ravens QB Joe Fagnano had a tough debut and there wasn’t much suspense about the final outcome.
What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?
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Our NFL handicapping team of Matt Jacob, Jeremy Pond and Matt Russell combine to give their best bets for Week 9 of the NFL season.
Odds subject to change.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 52.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Pond: Death, taxes and Mike Gesicki touchdowns.
The first two are sure things. The third is inching closer to becoming a guarantee.
Gesicki has accumulated a respectable 17 catches for 241 yards for the surging Bengals (5-2), who are in the midst of a three-game winning streak entering Sunday’s showdown with the Falcons at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid.
While those stats are solid, it’s what Gesicki has done in the red zone that’s turning heads. He has scored six touchdowns, including one in five consecutive games, meaning 35% of his catches this season have gone for scores.
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Gesicki has been Burrow’s favorite target all season in the red zone and I don’t see that changing here just because they’re playing Atlanta on another continent. Four of Gesicki’s touchdowns have come via receptions of 15 yards or less.
Bet: TE Mike Gesicki anytime touchdown (+230, FanDuel)
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 47.5)
Russell: If there’s a close game to blow, Aaron Glenn and the Jets are ready and willing to give it away. Luckily, when it comes to betting on New York, winning (or coming all that close) isn’t required here. It’s a particularly convenient situation, as they play a team known for winning close games but not covering big numbers, even at their best.
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Kansas City was “back” after a pair of home prime-time games had a fresh Patrick Mahomes running around, Travis Kelce in wedding shape and a crop of interesting wide receivers to support a passing game that was allowed to take a backseat to Andy Reid’s brand-new toy, Kenneth Walker. With that visibility in the comfy confines of Arrowhead, the Chiefs’ market rating raised and held its position just below the top teams in the NFL.
Since then, the Chiefs outgained the Dolphins by 5 yards in a point spread cover, barely fended off the Raiders and joined the club in outlasting the meek Chargers. Now, having lost back-to-back games to two good teams on the road, they have a thin receiver room, a banged-up Kelce and Walker’s yardage on a decline. Yet, they’re squished in-between the Jaguars and Patriots in THE WINDOW’s estimated market ratings.
Just three weeks ago, New England was -7 at home to the Jets, in a game that pushed against the spread. New York lost two more games as a home favorite, and the market has adjusted the Jets down in accordance.
In that time, the Jets have arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL, but the Chiefs haven’t shown that’s something they can exploit. Meanwhile, New York’s offense has crept up the advanced metrics with their pass-catching corps filling out with healthy returns Omar Cooper Jr., Adonai Michell and Mason Taylor, and Braelon Allen making Breece Hall seemingly expendable.
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Getting David Bailey (groin) back this week would help the Jets defense, especially with the Chiefs’ offensive line susceptible to the pass rush with Justin Simmons’ (IR) replacement, Khalil Benson, a far better run-blocker than pass-protector.
Nevertheless, with L’Jarius Sneed out, and Mansoor Delane questionable, the Jets should be able to move the ball well enough to keep this game close.
Bet: Jets +10 (-110, BetMGM)
Dallas Cowboys (-6, 51.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Jacob: You’re aware of the phrase “The more things change, the more they stay the same?” Well, let me introduce you to the 2026 Dallas Cowboys, who once again are all offense, no defense.
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Dallas arrives in Indianapolis averaging 27.4 points per game (seventh most in the NFL) and allowing 26.6 PPG (sixth most in the NFL). Mirroring recent seasons, the Cowboys field an offense that’s entirely reliant on QB Dak Prescott and a stop unit that stops, well, nothing. Just look at the rankings: ninth in passing offense, 25th in rushing offense, 22nd in passing defense, dead last in rushing defense.
All of this explains why the over has cashed in six of Dallas’ eight games this season (including final scores of 37-20, 34-31, 34-30, 38-21 and 33-30). And why the over is 37-16-1 in Cowboys games going back to Week 13 of the 2023 season.
Since last season kicked off, the Cowboys and their opponents have combined for more than 50 points in 17 of 25 games, including eight of 13 on the road.
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By now, it’s pretty clear where I’m heading with this wager. But of course it usually takes two to tango when betting a total. Good news: I’m quite confident the Colts will bring their dancing shoes Sunday, as they’ve eclipsed the total in five of eight games, including three of the last four.
Indy’s defense has been particularly putrid this year, with the Jaguars (42 points last week), Ravens (41), Steelers (34), Chiefs (33) and Titans (26) all lighting up the scoreboard.
Bet: Cowboys-Colts over 51.5 (-108, BetMGM)
Denver Broncos (-2.5, 43.5) at Carolina Panthers
Jacob: Broncos rookie RB Jonah Coleman has only played in three of his team’s first eight games. And he wasn’t overly impressive in any of them. He had 39 yards on 10 carries against Jacksonville in Week 2; 54 yards on nine carries against Arizona two weeks ago; and 41 yards on 11 totes against Kansas City last week.
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Here’s the thing, though: Coleman surpassed his rushing prop projection in all three contests. And the fourth-round pick from Washington did it against defenses that currently rank No. 1 (Jaguars), No. 8 (Chiefs) and No. 19 (Arizona) in stopping the run.
This week, Coleman faces Carolina, which is yielding 140.7 rushing yards per game and 4.83 yards per carry, figures that respectively rank 30th and 28th in the NFL. And that’s after the Panthers held Green Bay — which has by far the NFL’s most anemic running game — to 66 yards on 26 carries last week.
In the previous game, Tampa Bay backfield mates Bucky Irving (106 yards), Kenneth Gainwell (88 yards) and Sean Tucker (52 yards) shredded Carolina for 246 rushing yards on 45 carries. Other running backs to light up the Panthers this season: Cleveland’s Quinshon Judkins (70 yards), Atlanta’s Bijan and Brian Robinson (72 and 51 yards, respectively) and Chicago’s D’Andre Swift (124 yards) and Kyle Monangai (100 yards).
Coleman has been Denver’s leading ball carrier and rusher in all three games he’s played. He’ll do that again Sunday and easily eclipse 60 yards.
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Bet: Jonah Coleman over 52.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)
Buffalo Bills (-3, 45.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Pond: Big news dropped Thursday when Minnesota announced that QB Carson Wentz would start Monday’s showdown against Buffalo.
That might sound crushing for the Vikings (6-1), who are coming off their first loss of the season following a 19-15 road setback against Detroit. However, Murray has been anything but spectacular under center this season. He has thrown for just 1,022 yards (27th), and five touchdowns.
Now, Minnesota turns to Wentz, which isn’t such a bad thing. With Murray sidelined to start the season, Wentz led the Vikings to big wins against NFC rivals Green Bay and Chicago before heading back to clipboard duties.
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And one of the players who Wentz targeted during his two-game run was T.J. Hockenson.
The standout tight end hauled in a combined seven passes on nine targets for 65 yards, highlighted by a 16-yard TD catch in the season-opening win over the Packers.
More recently, Hockenson has been fantastic in a more featured role in the Minnesota offense. Over the past two outings, he has eight catches on 10 targets for 93 yards. He also recorded touchdowns in both contests.
Wentz will be looking for familiar, trustworthy faces when Minnesota gets in the red zone and Hockenson – along with Justin Jefferson – will be one of those faces.
Back the former first-round pick out of Iowa to make three games in a row with a touchdown.
Bet: TE T.J. Hockenson anytime TD (+250, BetMGM)
