Leading up to the Grammy nominations on Nov. 16, Rolling Stone is breaking down 11 different categories. For each, we’re predicting the nominees, as well as who will (and who should) win on Grammy night.
There are some years where grizzled rock acts from days of yore release so few new albums that newer groups (relatively speaking) like Greta Van Fleet, Turnstile, Cage the Elephant, or Paramore get a chance to take home the award. That’s unlikely to be the case this year since there are new releases by the Rolling Stones and Paul McCartney, both produced by Andrew Watt, and there’s also one by the Foo Fighters, who have won this category a record five times. Throw in a record by the Strokes, five years after they won for The New Abnormal, and there’s little room for any group that formed after the turn of the millennium.
Geese are such a band, since the members weren’t even alive in 2000, and Getting Killed is a remarkable record likely to earn them Grammys. But the LP feels like a stronger contender for Best Alternative Music Album than Best Rock Album. Then again, the divide between those two categories is pretty blurry.
All of this makes it pretty hard to predict who will win. That said, we’re going to try and make some very educated guesses based on Grammy history and our own intuition, plus some expert voices.
Best Rock Album – Our Predictions
Foo Fighters, Your Favorite Toy
Paul McCartney, The Boys of Dungeon Lane
The Rolling Stones, Foreign Tongues
The Strokes, Reality Awaits
Alabama Shakes, I Must Be Dreaming
Who Will Win?
Paul McCartney, The Boys of Dungeon Lane
Just two years ago, the Rolling Stones won Best Rock Album for Hackney Diamonds. The album not only racked up rave reviews, but it was also their first collection of original songs since 2005. It would be pretty impressive for the Stones to take it home again for Foreign Tongues, which is essentially a companion LP, but we don’t think that’ll happen. We instead think they’ll give it to some guy named Paul who played bass on a Foreign Tongues song, and used to be in some other 1960s rock band. Paul McCartney’s sole Best Rock Album nomination came in 2022 for McCartney III, but The Boys of Dungeon Lane is an even stronger effort. Somehow or another, Andrew Watt gets the best out of the Mount Rushmore figures of rock. “I thought it was the best McCartney album in a very long time,” says Jason Squires, program director of KFRR in Fresno, California. “It’s exactly what you’d want from Paul McCartney in 2026. He wasn’t trying to reinvent the wheel; just write good songs and put out good music.”
Who Should Win?
Paul McCartney, The Boys of Dungeon Lane
This could be one of those rare years where the best album actually gets the award. Paul McCartney’s voice may not be as strong as it was in 1967 or even 2017, but songs like “As You Lie There,” “Days We Left Behind,” and “Home to Us,” featuring Ringo Starr, show that his songwriting skills remain undiminished, even though he’s less than a year from his 85th birthday. “He still got it,” says SiriusXM DJ Justin Kade. “He wrote the book on how to tell a story, how to write a song, how to become a a true singer/songwriter. Let’s give the legends their flowers while we still have them, especially after losing Dolly.”
Forecasting the Field
There are quite a few non-octogenarians who released albums this year, and some of them are quite excellent. Alabama Shakes reunited after an 11-year hiatus with I Must Be Dreaming. It was worth the wait. “I think [Alabama Shakes bandleader] Brittany [Howard] was spot-on with this one,” says Squires. “It might overtake the others since it’s exactly what the voters perceive to be a rock album. And it’s a great one.” The Foo Fighters are almost guaranteed by law to be nominated for Best Rock Album every time they have a new one, but Squires doubts this one will top McCartney or the Stones. “I personally am a little burnt on the Foo Fighters,” he says. “But when you think of rock, you think of the Foo Fighters, and I like the fact that they never take themselves too seriously.” The Strokes are also enjoying a pretty remarkable comeback, and they won Best Rock Album in 2021 for The New Abnormal, but most fans enjoyed that one much more than their new one, Reality Awaits. “I think the Strokes time has kind of come and gone,” says Squires. “I wasn’t impressed with this record this time. It was just not connecting with me song-wise. But I could see them also getting a vote just because they’re the Strokes.”
