Mexico’s trade surplus with the United States increased more than 20% year over year in the first eight months of 2026, climbing to almost US $156 billion as Mexican exports to the U.S. reached a record high.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Tuesday that Mexico’s exports to the United States totaled $419.34 billion between January and August, while its imports from the U.S. were worth $263.47 billion.
Mexico thus recorded a trade surplus of $155.87 billion, an increase of 21.2% compared to its surplus with the U.S. in the first eight months of 2025. In August, Mexico recorded a trade surplus of almost $27 billion with its northern neighbor.
Of all countries around the world, Mexico recorded the second-highest surplus with the U.S. between January and August, behind Vietnam.
According to the Bank of Canada, “[a] trade deficit is not necessarily bad, and a trade surplus is not necessarily good.”
In Mexico’s case, a large and growing trade surplus with the United States is arguably not desirable at a time when the Mexican government is seeking to reach a trade deal with the Trump administration, which in July announced that it had decided against renewing the USMCA free trade pact in its current form. U.S. President Donald Trump frequently rails against the United States’ deficits with Mexico and other countries, saying last month, “We lose with Mexico $195 billion a year.”
Trump says Mexico is only good for ‘tamales and tomatoes.’ Trade data says otherwise
He has even said that Mexico and Canada should become U.S. states given that the United States runs large deficits with the two countries.
Mexico’s exports to US surge 18% between January and August
Mexico shipped goods worth a record high $419.34 billion to the U.S. in the first eight months of 2026, an increase of 18.3% compared to the same period of last year. Mexico’s exports to the U.S. in August were worth $60.63 billion, a record for any month and a 34.2% year-over-year increase.
Mexico remained the largest exporter to the United States in the first eight months of 2026, taking a 17.4% share of the U.S. $2.41 trillion import market in the period.
Mexico’s share of the market increased 2.1 percentage points compared to the first eight months of 2025. Most Mexican exports enter the United States tariff-free as the USMCA remains in effect, despite the U.S. government’s decision not to renew the trilateral pact for an additional 16 years. However, some important Mexican exports — including vehicles, steel and aluminum — do face tariffs when entering the U.S.
Mexico’s export revenue and share of the U.S. import market has increased as Mexican exporters ship much larger quantities of tech products, including AI servers, to the United States to support that country’s data center boom. Such products typically have low levels of Mexican value added as much of their content is imported, especially from Asia.
Still, the increase in Mexican — if not wholly “Made in Mexico” — exports to the U.S. has allowed Mexico to further consolidate its position as the top exporter to the world’s largest economy.
Canada’s share of the U.S. import market remained broadly steady at around 11.2% in the first eight months of 2026, while China’s share fell to 7.6% from 9.5% between January and August 2025. Canada and China are the second and third largest exporters to the United States.
Mexico’s imports from US increase 16.6% in first 8 months of 2026
Mexico imported U.S. goods worth $263.47 billion in the first eight months of 2026, an increase of 16.6% compared to the same period of last year. In August, Mexico imported U.S. goods worth $33.65 billion, a 15.3% increase compared to the same month of 2025.
Mexico was the world’s largest importer of U.S. goods in the January-August period, receiving 16% of all U.S. exports (based on their value).
Canada was the second largest importer of U.S. goods in the first eight months of the year, receiving 14.4% of all U.S. exports (by value).
Mexico-US trade accounts for around 1/6 of total US trade
Two-way trade between Mexico and the United States totaled $681.82 billion in the first eight months of 2026, accounting for 16.8% of total U.S. trade with all countries around the world. Mexico was easily the United States’ largest trade partner in the period.
The United States’ second largest trade partner between January and August was Canada, with trade between the North American neighbors worth $505.61 billion. That amount is equivalent to 12.5% of all U.S. trade in the period, which totaled $4.05 trillion.
The United States spent $2.41 trillion on imports between January and August, while U.S. exports were worth $1.64 trillion. Consequently, the U.S. recorded a trade deficit of $773.93 billion.
Mexico recorded a trade surplus of $9.86 billion between January and August, according to data published by the national statistics agency INEGI last week.
With reports from El Economista and El Financiero
