The federal government is projected to earn net oil revenue in 2027 for the first time since 2024, even as it continues to provide monetary support to the state oil company Pemex.
According to an analysis of the proposed 2027 budget by the think tank México Evalúa, the government is projected to earn net oil revenue of 127 billion pesos (US $7.1 billion) next year.
That figure reflects projected oil revenue of 211 billion pesos in 2027, minus 84 billion pesos in planned government transfers to Pemex, to be made via the federal Energy Ministry.
Data published by México Evalúa shows that the government’s transfers to Pemex exceeded total oil revenue last year and were forecast to do so again this year based on the amount budgeted for the state oil company. Thus, the federal government is projected to record a net oil loss for a second consecutive year in 2026, although it could avoid such a loss if its transfers to Pemex end up being lower than planned.
While the projected 127 billion pesos in net oil revenue would be the government’s first net oil revenue since 2024, the figure would remain well below the amounts it received in some previous years.
In 2022, for example, the government earned net oil revenue of 551 billion pesos. That figure (expressed in “2027 prices,” per México Evalúa) was the result of 780 billion pesos in oil revenue, minus 229 billion pesos in transfers to Pemex.
According to México Evalúa, the government’s net oil revenue was 1.78 trillion pesos in 2012 — a year in which it didn’t transfer any money to Pemex — and 1.51 trillion pesos in 2013. The latter figure was the result of 1.64 trillion pesos in oil revenue, minus 123 billion pesos in transfers to Pemex. The government can use net oil revenue to fund things such as healthcare, security, infrastructure and education. Pemex used to be known as a “cash cow” for the government, but has become a financial drain in recent years.
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This decade, the government has provided significant monetary support to Pemex, which had debt of US $77.5 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026. Monetary support for the company peaked at 425 billion pesos in 2025.
However, the government’s support for the state oil company in 2027 is projected to decline by close to 70% compared to the budgeted outlay in 2026. Whether that in fact happens, allowing the federal government to earn net oil revenue in 2027, remains to be seen.
México Evalúa: Government has a ‘tradition’ of providing Pemex with more support than planned — but that could change in 2026
Jorge Cano, head of México Evalúa’s public expenditure program, told the newspaper El Economista that government transfers to Pemex have a “tradition” of being significantly higher than planned.
He said that if support for Pemex exceeds the planned level in 2027 to the same extent as in recent years, the government could again record a net loss from oil instead of the projected 127 billion pesos in net revenue.
Cano said that the government has discretion to increase support for Pemex beyond the planned amount and need only notify Congress if the allocation is adjusted by more than 5%.
While the government has exceeded its planned support for Pemex in recent years, it doesn’t appear that it will do so in 2026, based on data for the first seven months of the year. Mariana Campos, general director of México Evalúa, pointed out that the government had transferred 139 billion pesos to Pemex by the end of July, representing just 51% of the 272 billion pesos earmarked for the company.
She said that “for the first time,” the government’s monetary support for Pemex is lower than budgeted. This development, Campos said, supports the projection that the government will earn net oil revenue in 2027.
With reports from El Economista
